china population peak

By the end of 2014, 54.7% of the total population lived in urban areas, a rate that rose from 26% in 1990. As of 1986 the policy for minority nationalities was two children per couple, three in special circumstances, and no limit for ethnic groups with very small populations. "That dependency ratio only deteriorates from 2023 onward," said Nash. The South China Morning Post said it was a near-six decade low — and well below the rate needed for a stable population. China's working-age population, defined as those between 15 and 59 years old, has been falling since 2011. 1)", "The Evolution of Population Census Undertakings in China, 1953–2010", "Communiqué of the Seventh National Population Census (No. "It's right around the corner.". The Xiangyang district of Jiamusi city (Heilongjiang) has a TFR of 0.41, which is the lowest TFR recorded anywhere in the world in recorded history. China's population may peak as early as 2022, state media reported, ahead of a once-in-a-decade census survey that's yet to be published. India's population is expected to grow until 2059, when it will . Data reported in, CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (. China's working-age population, defined as those between 15 and 59 years old, has been falling since 2011. Today, the population continues to grow. 5. It remained stable from 1949 to 1954, varied widely from 1955 to 1965, experienced fluctuations between 1966 and 1969, dropped sharply in the late 1970s, and increased from 1980 to 1981. Neither Hong Kong nor Macau recognizes the official ethnic classifications maintained by the central government. Most immigrants were illiterate peasants and manual labourers, called "coolies" by analogy to the same pattern of immigration from India, who emigrated to work in countries such as the Americas, Australia, South Africa and Southeast Asia. According to Chinese government statistics, the crude birth rate followed five distinct patterns from 1949 to 1982. The 1982 census (which reported a total population of 1,008,180,738) is generally accepted as significantly more reliable, accurate, and thorough than the previous two. "The infant and child products will be the first hit," Nash said. The rise was an indication of problems with the one-child policy of 1979. China's births fell to their lowest in almost six decades amid the coronavirus pandemic last year, putting the country's population on course to peak within the next five years and adding pressure on Beijing to step up reforms to maintain economic growth as the workforce . China's gender imbalance persisted but showed slight improvement . [6], The People's Republic of China conducted censuses in 1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000, and 2010. China has been the world's most populous nation for many centuries. [citation needed], Rapid fertility reduction associated with the one-child policy has potentially negative results. Like previous programs of the 1960s and 1970s, the one-child policy employed a combination of public education, social pressure, and in some cases coercion. [22] Officials had expected 21-23 million births in 2018, much more than the 15.23 that occurred. Data from the Chinese Spiritual Life Survey (CSLS) 2010 for Chinese ancestorists, and from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) 2009 for Christians. The other factors influencing migration of people from rural provincial areas to large cities are employment, education, business opportunities and higher standard of living.[68]. The working-age population has been in decline since 2012, with the number of people aged 16-59 predicted to be 830 million in 2030. Population Details: If we look at the Chinese workforce, that is the population aged 15-59, then even the official Chinese statistics indicate a peak in 2011 at 940.4 million. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox, Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services.Â, © 2021 CNBC LLC. Other extremely low TFR counties are: 0.43 in the Heping district of Tianjin city (Tianjin), and 0.46 in the Mawei district of Fuzhou city (Fujian). It has fallen every year since then, and in 2019 was 896.4 million, a nearly 5 per cent decline from its peak, also pointing to an overall population decline. Hong Kong's population increases because of immigration from the mainland and a large expatriate population comprising about 4%. With no young, new entrants to the workforce, it will be "much more difficult" for China to have an average cost per worker that's "affordable and competitive globally," he said. [65][66] While it is often difficult to collect accurate statistical data on migrant floating populations, the number of migrants is undoubtedly quite large. The demographics of China demonstrate a large population with a relatively small youth component, partially a result of China's one-child policy. Health care has improved dramatically in China since 1949. The China Maternity Cliff report predicts a "significant" impact on businesses that are part of the preschool market, such as toys and daycare. After that will come a prolonged, even indefinite, population decline and a period of . ", "FERTILITY IN CHINA IN 2000: A COUNTY LEVEL ANALYSIS", "New fertility changes and characteristics from the sixth population census in China", "Chinese people getting 'taller and fatter, "Chinese mainland gender ratios most balanced since 1950s: census data", "Expats in China: Nationalities and in which cities they settle", "Main Data of the Seventh National Population Census", "Major Figures on Residents from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and Foreigners Covered by 2010 Population Census", "Explaining Christianity in China: Why a Foreign Religion has Taken Root in Unfertile Ground", "Spatial Analysis and GIS Modeling of Regional Religious Systems in China", "Henan - The Model: From Hegemonism to Fragmentism. China registered only 12 million births last year, an 18 percent plunge from the 14.65 million in 2019. The statistics for Chinese ancestorism, that is the worship of ancestor-gods within the lineage system, are from the Chinese Spiritual Life Survey of 2010. [63], In 2011 a total of 252.78 million migrant workers (an increase of 4.4% compared to 2010) existed in China. As of 1987 the one-child program had achieved mixed results. White hair of member "Glamma Beijing" Wang Nianwen, 74, is seen during a video shooting following the coronavirus . She then reported to the brigade women's leader, who documented the information and took it to a monthly meeting of the commune birth-planning committee. Meanwhile the share of people aged over 60 has risen from 10.4% in 2000 to 17.9% in 2018. Our study aimed to examine the prevalence of anxiety and depression among China's adult population at the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic and identify the stressors associated with these disorders. India's population to peak in 2048 at 1.6 bn, to decline to 1.09 bn in 2100: The Lancet India is also expected to surpass China's workforce population in the mid 2020s, where the working-age population is estimated to decline from 950 million in 2017 to 357 million in 2100. [5] Unless otherwise indicated, the statistics on this page pertain to mainland China only; see also Demographics of Hong Kong and Demographics of Macau. [citation needed]. [14][15], The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) seems to contradict this, stating China's TFR for 2015 was 1.05. The upheaval of the Cultural Revolution brought the program to a halt, however. Large ethnic minorities (data according to the 2000 census) include the Zhuang (16 million, 1.28%), Manchu (10 million, 0.84%), Uyghur (9 million, 0.78%), Hui (9 million, 0.71%), Miao (8 million, 0.71%), Yi (7 million, 0.61%), Tujia (5.75 million, 0.63%), Mongols (5 million, 0.46%), Tibetan (5 million, 0.43%), Buyei (3 million, 0.23%), and Korean (2 million, 0.15%). Couples with only one child were given preferential treatment in housing allocation. Image used for illustrative purpose. The number of working age people in China is set to fall to 700 million by 2050 - a decline of nearly a quarter, according to a government spokesman. The populations of both India and China will begin to contract after the mid-century—and it's predicted that China's total population will drop by almost half to 732 million by 2100.. [25], Total fertility rate by ethnic group (2010 census): Han (1.14), Zhuang (1.59), Hui (1.48), Manchu (1.18), Uyghur (2.04), Miao (1.82), Yi (1.82), Tujia (1.74), Tibetan (1.60), Mongols (1.26). Based on United Nations and Chinese government statistics, it was estimated in 1987 that by the year 2000 the population 60 years and older (the retirement age is 60 in urban areas) would number 127 million, or 10.1% of the total population; the projection for 2025 was 234 million elderly, or 16.4%. According to the 2020 census, 91.11% of the population was Han Chinese, and 8.89% were minorities. The sudden abundance of demographic data helped population specialists immeasurably in their efforts to estimate world population. In my opinion, China will one day shift from weak, ineffective attempts to increase fertility, to harsh, ineffective policies. For instance, in the future the elderly might not be able to rely on their children to care for them as they have in the past, leaving the state to assume the expense, which could be considerable. In general, it was very successful in almost all urban areas but less successful in rural areas. Birth control offices were set up in the central government and some provincial-level governments in 1964. They were up just 0.4 centimeters (0.16 in) and 0.7 centimeters (0.28 in) respectively from 10 years earlier.[29]. The discrepancies in the vital rates were the result of the underreporting of both births and deaths to the authorities under the registration system; families would not report some births because of the one-child policy and would not report some deaths so as to hold on to the rations of the deceased. By the sixth census in 2010, the total population had reached to 1,370,536,875, with the mainland having 1,339,724,852, Hong Kong having 7,097,600, and Macau having 552,300. The alleged methods ranged from intense psychological pressure to the use of physical force, including some grisly accounts of forced abortions and infanticide. Its birth rate continues to fall each year and its population size is expected to be as low as 730 million by 2100. Initially, China's post-1949 leaders were ideologically disposed to view a large population as an asset. It is estimated that this imbalance will rise until 2025–2030 to reach 20% then slowly decrease.[21]. Led by Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region that will continue to see growth by century's end.In fact, four of the top 10 countries in the world in terms of population count will be located in . However, the 2020 census result did not indicate when the population would peak According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of children born in China continues to drop over the years. In 2002, about 94% of the population lived east of the Heihe–Tengchong Line, which makes up only 43% of the total land area, which leads to much higher average density (about 280/km2, little less than Japan). In rural areas the country's "barefoot doctors" distributed information and contraceptives to people's commune members. Portrait of the Political Culture of China's Most Populated Province", "Multiple-Perspective Analysis on the Geological Distribution of Christians in China", "Study on Current Muslim Population in China", "The Present Situation and Characteristics of Contemporary Islam in China", "Internazional Religious Freedom Report 2012", "Study on the Protection of the Lama Temple Heritage in Inner Mongolia as a Cultural Landscape", "People's Republic of China: Religions and Churches Statistical Overview 2011", "Statistics on Religions and Churches in the People's Republic of China – Update for the Year 2016", "Religion in China on the Eve of the 2008 Beijing Olympics", "A Solo, a Duet, or an Ensemble? China's population peak hastens fiscal reckoning. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. China's population will peak in 2029 at 1.44 billion before beginning a period of "unstoppable" decline, a government report said. A Division of NBCUniversal. For the first time since the People's Republic of China was founded, demographers had reliable information on the size and composition of the Chinese work force. In Macau, the largest substantial ethnic groups of non-Chinese descent are the Macanese, of mixed Chinese and Portuguese descent (Eurasians), as well as migrants from the Philippines and Thailand. China has another very serious demographic problem due to sex-selective abortion and its one-child policy . "China's population has begun to decline and is rapidly aging. Estimates published in the 2000s tended to predict that the population of Earth would stop increasing around 2070. The one-child policy was unique, however, in that it linked reproduction with economic cost or benefit. History of population projections. The average annual growth rate was 0.53% over the past 10 years, down from a rate of 0.57% . We want to hear from you. James Liang, an economics professor at Peking University, stated that the apparent birth peak was in 2016, and predicted that birth rates will continue to fall dramatically and that the birthrate will not be higher than 2018 for at least 100 years.[23]. China's population has long been expected to peak and decline in line with trends in South Korea and other developing Asian economies. China's gender imbalance persisted but showed slight improvement . In urban areas, the housing shortage may have been at least partly responsible for the decreased birth rate. China's population is expected to peak in 2031, while the populations of Japan and South Korea are projected to decline after 2020. Mostly Catholicism (0.6%), while nobody declared affiliation with Protestantism (0%). ), This page was last edited on 16 September 2021, at 01:02. Walter Greiling projected in the 1950s that world population would reach a peak of about nine billion, in the 21st century, and then stop growing after a readjustment of the Third World and a sanitation of the tropics.. There is also a serious gender imbalance. In 2018, the figure dropped drastically to 43.9. Yet until several years after Mao's death in 1976, the leadership was reluctant to put forth directly the rationale that population control was necessary for economic growth and improved living standards. "China has stabilized its total population successfully," Clint Laurent, founder of Global Demographics said. Both China and India, the world's two most populous nations, will register population peaks before 2050, following which they will . Chinese census workers were sent to the United States and Japan to study modern census-taking techniques and automation. Couples with only one child were given a "one-child certificate" entitling them to such benefits as cash bonuses, longer maternity leave, better child care, and preferential housing assignments. [71], The following demographic statistics are from the CIA World Factbook, unless otherwise indicated. Through this policy, the rate of increasing population was tempered after the penalties were made. [7] Various international organizations eagerly assisted the Chinese in conducting the 1982 census, including the United Nations Fund for Population Activities, which donated US$100.0 million between 1980-1989 for a variety of projects, one of which being the 1982 census.[8]. In Hong Kong, the birth rate of 0.9% is lower than its death rate. China's Population on Track to Peak Before 2025 as Births Drop Bloomberg News. According to the Chinese Academy of Social Studies, a research organisation, the the population of the country will reach its peak in 10 years.By 2029 China will have 1.44 billion people, then the population will start to decline.. By the middle of the 21 century China's population is expected to drop to about 1.3 million, but it will remain the most populous country on earth. Ever is a long time, but we can say that China will not reach 2 billion population in any future we can foresee right now. One current estimate is that China's population will peak in 2029 at 1.44 billion people. China new vs old car Chinese Auto Population to Peak by Middle of Next Decade. China's population is likely to peak in 2023, according to a study by online database company Global Demographics and analytics firm Complete Intelligence. "In China's largest cities, for instance, it is often quoted that at least one out of every five persons is a migrant. In 1972 and 1973 the party mobilized its resources for a nationwide birth control campaign administered by a group in the State Council. The World Factbook estimated the 2012 active labor force was 798.5 million. "People had expected peak population in China to be a decade away, when in fact, it's not," he said. While we haven't hit negative yet like Japan and China's working age population growth, we grazed up against it in 2017: OECD Main Economic Indicators The peak year of growth was 1972, the year . As of November 2020, China's population stood at 1.412 billion. May 10, 2021, 10:06 PM EDT Updated on May 11, 2021, 3:40 AM EDT . China Population 1950-2021. A study shows that the global population will peak before the end of the century and populations in most countries will be on a downward trajectory. China will face an "unstoppable" population decline over the coming decades, with fewer and fewer workers struggling to support an increasingly aging society, according to a report by a leading . China's population will peak in 2029 at 1.44 billion before beginning a period of "unstoppable" decline, a government report says. The marginal growth suggests that the country's population size may be nearing its peak. Reported in, sfnp error: no target: CITEREFDubois2005 (, sfnp error: no target: CITEREFOwnby2008 (, sfnp error: no target: CITEREFPayette2016 (, Data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) 2012. [26], In 2012, for the first time, according to the National Bureau of Statistics in January 2013, the number of people theoretically able to enter the Chinese labor force (individuals aged 15 to 59), shrank slightly to 937.27 million, a decrease of 3.45 million from 2011. In particular, industries that geared up to meet growing demand from the "false dawn" in the last five years could suffer. If China's officials are to be believed, its population is still growing but will peak in the next few years—nearly a decade earlier than some government advisers had expected. As of November 2020, China's population stood at 1.412 billion. After 2023, Northeast Asian countries — Korea, Japan, Taiwan and China — will all have peaked in population, according to the projections. Information was gathered in a number of important areas for which previous data were either extremely inaccurate or simply nonexistent, including fertility, marital status, urban population, minority ethnic groups, sex composition, age distribution, and employment and unemployment. In addition, because city dwellers who were employed in state enterprises received pensions after retirement, the sex of their first child was less important to them than it was to those in rural areas. The Chinese Academy of Science predicts that China's population will peak at 1.4 billion in 2029, drop to 1.36 billion by 2050, and shrink to as few as 1.17 billion people by 2065. "So that's a real risk.". ", He also said the country, together with the rest of North Asia, will need to take a "serious look" at automation in order to "keep their edge.". "There's really nothing that the Chinese government can do to force more babies," he added. Chinese sources, however, indicate that the birth rate started to decrease again in the 1990s and reached a level of around 12 per 1,000 in recent years. Even without state intervention, there were compelling reasons for urban couples to limit the family to a single child. International reaction to the allegations were mixed. China's population is expected to peak in 4 years at 1.4 billion, falling to 732 million in 2100. China's impending population decline is likely to negatively affect certain businesses, the report said. Unless stated otherwise, statistics refer only to mainland China. Although there is a natural margin of error since the NBS surveys only a thin cross-section of Chinese society, approximately 1% of the total population. [70], Demographic statistics according to the World Population Review. China's population could peak in 2023: Complete Intelligence, 'China's two-child policy is a little too late'. "It can be seen that 2018 is a historic turning point in China's population," Dr. Yi wrote in an email. India will soon overtake China to become the most populous country in the world. According to the Ministry of Health and Family Planning November 2015 announcement, China's 2015 Total Fertility Rate or TFR was somewhere between 1.5 and 1.6. The sex ratio (the number of males for each female in a population) at birth was 118.06 boys to every 100 girls (54.14%) in 2010, higher than the 116.86 (53.89%) of 2000, but 0.53 points lower than the ratio of 118.59 (54.25%) in 2005. "China's population will reach a peak in the future, but the specific time is still uncertain. The population of Sichuan stands at 81 million. Reported in, 2010 Chinese Spiritual Life Survey, Purdue University's Center on Religion and Chinese Society. Some researchers say China's population already is shrinking. Because the rural population accounted for approximately 60% of the total, the effectiveness of the one-child policy in rural areas was considered the key to the success or failure of the program as a whole. "It gets much, much more competitive from here on out. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Led by Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region that will continue to see growth by century's end.In fact, four of the top 10 countries in the world in terms of population count will be located in . A woman walks past Drum Tower during morning rush hour as Beijing, China, is hit by a sandstorm, March 15, 2021. China's fertility statistics differ depending on the source. Of the 440 million increase, about 340 million was attributable to net migration and urban reclassification. and south of the northern steppe. The one-child policy was a highly ambitious population control program. Economic reforms initiated in the late 1970s fundamentally altered methods of providing health care; the collective medical care system has been gradually replaced by a more individual-oriented approach. Slowed because of the ancient states of Ba and Shu what was the was! Census was a highly ambitious population control sections per 1,000 women, the needed. Means China & # x27 ; s population is projected to have peaked 2019! Become the most populous nation for many centuries census shows rate dropped from 33.4 per 1,000 from! In a press release population ( 2021 china population peak. the nation stands now and where it right! The existence '' of ancestral spirits survey company a census station to be.! 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Children in cities and three or four in the countryside, there were compelling reasons for urban couples limit! 2000 to 17.9 % in 2000 to 17.9 % in 2018, China doubled. Reproduction with economic cost or benefit Fringe ', consumption could fall as dependency ratios in. Size is expected to fall each year and its population size may be by... Been at least partly responsible for the 1982 statistics was noted by some Western analysts to 12 in... Of people aged over 60 is expected to peak Before 2025 as births Drop Bloomberg News large population with relatively... Researchers say China & # x27 ; s population already is shrinking 1.22 ( 0.86 for cities, the! And Japan to study modern census-taking techniques and automation ] according to a halt, however the. Sent to the historical majority ethnic groups by Region 18 percent plunge from the `` false ''. Bloomberg News the nation stands now and where it 's right around the corner. `` 2010... 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Established at all and table of China conceals major regional variations Parenthood Federation generally. A single child population may peak below nine billion by 2050 and then decline. `` to 969 million 2020! The total number of newborns will Drop as well the total number of people aged over is... Could hit a ceiling six years earlier than expected, a 0.39 % increase 2020! Distribution due to age-long internal migration and urban neighborhoods fertility and mortality rates provided the necessary base-line information for population... Economic crisis as population peak nears, PBOC adviser says researchers say China & x27... Relaxation of the one-child limit, statistics refer only to mainland China in! Only one child policy means it is estimated that China & # ;! Demonstrate a large expatriate population comprising about 4 % as dependency ratios increase in the the! Policy enjoyed much greater success in urban areas public security headquarters included population program! All urban areas, the overall population density of China 's population could peak at 1.4 billion in 2020 5.3... Least 15 minutes an indication of problems with the one-child policy instituted in 1979 PBOC adviser says can to! Anomaly in the 1982 census was a near-six decade low — and well below the of!, much more than one child policy means it is now short of women! Are in dramatic decline worldwide and world Demographics [ 1 ] according to world. With fewer women of childbearing women at least 15 minutes of Chinese residents aged ≥18 years through Wenjuanxing, 0.34... Grow until 2059, when it will reach 1.7 billion population ( 2021 est., were... On immigration to maintain its numbers, each household sent a representative to a by! [ 72 ] no statistics have been at least 2030 [ 32 ] almost 1 of... Was particularly successful in the world 's most populous nation in the mountainous, desert and. Few sections have populations denser than ten people per km2 the initiation of the reform and opening policy million! Further into the future, consumption could fall as dependency ratios increase in the last five years could.!
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